Hyundai is on track for a strong 2026 in the U.S., and Cox Automotive expects the automaker to achieve a notable milestone in the third quarter: outselling Ford for the period. The projection comes after Hyundai recorded its best August sales in U.S. brand history and built on its best first-half sales.
Hyundai Could Move Ahead of Ford in Q3
Cox Automotive estimates that Hyundai will sell 511,421 cars in the U.S. from July through September. That would represent a 6.5% increase from the same quarter last year, when Hyundai sold 480,174 cars.
Ford, meanwhile, is expected to see its third-quarter sales fall 7.1% from last year’s 542,983 cars to 504,172. That would put Hyundai ahead of Ford for the quarter.
Despite Hyundai’s projected third-quarter gain, Ford is still expected to remain ahead for the year through the end of the third quarter. Cox estimates Ford will have sold 1,505,134 cars compared with 1,431,804 for Hyundai.
Ford’s projected year-to-date sales would represent an 8.8% decline, or nearly 150,000 fewer cars. Hyundai’s total, by comparison, would be up 4.3%, representing an increase of around 60,000 sales.
Toyota Closes the Gap With General Motors
The competition at the top of the U.S. auto market is also tightening between General Motors and Toyota. GM remains the best-selling automaker in the U.S. and is expected to retain that position for both the third quarter and the year so far.
However, GM’s sales are declining while Toyota’s are increasing. Cox estimates GM will sell 671,706 cars in the third quarter, bringing its year-to-date total to 2,007,180. Those figures would represent declines of 5.2% and 6.2%, respectively.
Toyota’s third-quarter sales are projected to reach 642,707, bringing its total for the year so far to 1,886,096. That would represent increases of 2.2% for the quarter and 1.1% for the year.
Toyota’s gains have also been limited by weaker RAV4 sales at the start of the year because of production issues, which greatly diminished its gains for the year.
Other Automakers Show Mixed 2026 Results
Several other automakers are posting more stable results after having experienced a rocky couple of years. Stellantis sales for the year so far are projected to increase 2.8%, while Nissan-Mitsubishi is nearly even with last year, with sales up 0.1%.
Volkswagen is projected to decline by about 7.1% for the year, adding to the mixed sales picture across the industry.
Tesla Faces the Largest Sales Decline
Tesla is projected to be the worst-performing automaker among those highlighted for 2026. Cox expects the company’s third-quarter sales to fall 31% compared with the same quarter last year, while total sales are projected to decline 18.9%.
Tesla had 451,160 sales last year, putting it ahead of Volkswagen. This year, however, Tesla has fallen behind Volkswagen despite Volkswagen’s sales slump, with Tesla recording fewer than 400,000 sales for the year total.
